Palm oil: 2025 price hike forecast may not materialize

Palm oil accounts for almost half of the world’s vegetable oil shipments. Although it lost its crown as the cheapest oil on the market for a time, this position has since been regained at the expense of soybean oil.

Those who were hoping at the start of the year that the palm oil market would post another gain like in 2024 can kiss their dream goodbye. At least, that’s what the latest industry estimates suggest.

According to information relayed by Reuters, prices for the world’s most widely consumed oil are set to reach 3,500 ringgit ($817.7) per tonne between June and November this year, their lowest level for two years.

According to Dorab Mistry, global analyst and director of the Indian consumer goods company Godrej International, who formulated this forecast, palm oil stocks have begun to recover in Indonesia and Malaysia, the two main players on the market, and production should pick up again in the second half of the year.

In fact, supply is generally more abundant in the second half of the year, with oil palm production peaking between August and October in Malaysia and Indonesia, thanks to wetter conditions allowing bunches to grow.

source: agence ecofin