United States: first decline in GDP for two years

US GDP fell by 0.2% in the first quarter of 2025, according to a revision by the Commerce Department. This is the first contraction since 2023, and a warning signal for the US economy.

The cause: uncertainty linked to the Trump administration’s tariff policies, which are dampening household and business confidence. While non-residential investment surged by +10.3%, driven by industry, it was largely offset by a slump in foreign trade: imports soared, exports fell, costing almost 5 points of GDP.

On the consumption side, growth remained modest (+1.2%), held back by a decline in the automotive and health services sectors. Yet this spending alone accounts for 70% of the US economy.

Another point of weakness: federal public spending fell by 4.6%, in line with the policy of budget cuts. The result: a global slowdown, despite still solid investment fundamentals.

This slowdown calls for caution: if the pricing environment does not clear up, the technical recession could be confirmed as early as the second quarter.

source: Le Figaro